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Evidence-controlled external events

Risk events, converted into decision-useful scenarios.

Search documented operational and non-financial risk events by risk, topic, impact, sector, jurisdiction or period.

Each published case separates authoritative findings from the hypothetical scenario, framework relevance and NFRisk practitioner interpretation.

Explore the library

Find the scenario relevant to your decision.

6 approved scenarios currently published.

Additional developed cases remain private until they pass the same evidence controls.

NFR-0051 2018 Evidence-controlled

TSB Bank plc

When the data migrated successfully, was the platform ready?

The FCA and PRA found that TSB's data migrated successfully in April 2018, but the new platform failed immediately; disruption affected all branches and a significant proportion of 5.2 million customers, with £48.65 million in combined penalties.

Technology & Change Risk Operational Resilience Third-Party & Concentration Risk Change & release management
Open NFR-0051
NFR-0052 2012 Approved reference case

Royal Bank of Scotland, NatWest and Ulster Bank

When overnight processing failed, could the numbers still be trusted?

A 2012 software compatibility failure disrupted core banking processes, affected at least 6.5 million UK customers and resulted in £56 million of combined FCA and PRA penalties.

Technology & Change Risk Operational Resilience Data & Control Integrity Payments Risk
Open NFR-0052
NFR-0085 2006 Evidence-controlled

Volkswagen AG

When software could recognise the test, could certification still be trusted?

Volkswagen pleaded guilty in 2017 to three federal felonies after software distinguished emissions testing from normal driving; the US federal resolution totalled $4.3 billion and concerned approximately 590,000 diesel vehicles.

Conduct & Governance Risk Data & Control Integrity Physical, Safety & Environmental Risk System & back-out testing
Open NFR-0085
NFR-0003 2004 Evidence-controlled

BNP Paribas S.A.

When external warnings accumulated, could sanctions controls still be trusted?

BNP Paribas pleaded guilty in 2014 to conspiring to violate US sanctions law after moving more than $8.8 billion through the US financial system for sanctioned entities; the plea agreement imposed $8.9736 billion in total financial penalties.

Financial Crime & Control Integrity Data & Control Integrity Conduct & Governance Risk Sanctions
Open NFR-0003
NFR-0044 1999 Evidence-controlled

Post Office Limited - Horizon

When system-generated shortfalls were treated as evidence, who tested the system?

The Court of Appeal found a material risk that apparent branch shortfalls were caused by Horizon bugs, errors or defects and quashed 39 appellants' convictions in 2021; legislation in 2024 then quashed qualifying convictions more broadly.

Data & Control Integrity Conduct & Governance Risk Data integrity Control assurance
Open NFR-0044

An important distinction

External scenarios are not NFRisk client case studies.

The named organisations in this library are documented external events. They are not presented as NFRisk clients. NFRisk Case Studies separately describe anonymised prior delivery experience; Insights provide longer-form analysis.

Apply the learning

Use a scenario to test a live control assumption.

The library is designed to support better questions. NFRisk can turn the relevant pattern into a focused diagnostic, risk architecture or delivery-assurance discussion.

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